Exports and Italy’s economic development: a long-run perspective (1863-2004)
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Data di Pubblicazione:
2011
Citazione:
Rinaldi, A. e B., Pistoresi. "Exports and Italy’s economic development: a long-run perspective (1863-2004)" Working paper, RECENT WORKING PAPER SERIES, Dipartimento di Economia Marco Biagi – Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia, 2011.
Abstract:
This paper investigates the relationship between real export and real GDP in Italy from 1863 to
2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that these
variables comove in the long run but the direction of causality depends on the level of economic
development: in the period prior to WW1 the growth of the Italian economy led that of exports,
while in the post-WW2 period the causal relationship was reversed with the expansion of
exports that determined the growth of the Italian economy.
2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that these
variables comove in the long run but the direction of causality depends on the level of economic
development: in the period prior to WW1 the growth of the Italian economy led that of exports,
while in the post-WW2 period the causal relationship was reversed with the expansion of
exports that determined the growth of the Italian economy.
Tipologia CRIS:
Working paper
Keywords:
Export led growth hypothesis, unit root tests, cointegration analysis, Granger – causality.
Elenco autori:
Rinaldi, A.; Pistoresi, B.
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