Miracle of Peer Review and Development in Science: An Agent-Based Model

It is not easy to rationalize how peer review, as the current grassroots of science, can work based on voluntary contributions of reviewers. There is no rationale to write impartial and thorough evaluations. Consequently, there is no risk in submitting lowquality work by authors. As a result, scientists face a social dilemma: if everyone acts according to his or her own self-interest, low scienti c quality is produced. Still, in practice, reviewers as well as authors invest high e ort in reviews and submissions. We examine how the increased relevance of public good bene ts (journal impact factor), the editorial policy of handling incoming reviews, and the acceptance decisions that take into account reputational information can help the evolution of high-quality contributions from authors. High e ort from the side of reviewers is problematic even if authors cooperate: reviewers are still best o by producing low-quality reviews, which does not hinder scienti c development, just adds random noise and unnecessary costs to it. We show with agent-based simulations that tacit agreements between authors that are based on reciprocity might decrease these costs, but does not result in superior scienti c quality. Our study underlines why certain self-emerged current practices, such as the increased importance of journal metrics, the reputation-based selection of reviewers, and the reputation bias in acceptance work e ciently for scienti c development. Our results nd no answers, however, how the system of peer review with impartial and thorough evaluations could be sustainable jointly with rapid scienti c development