Does a braided river aggrade or degrade in response to changes in water and sediment fluxes?

Braided rivers undergo continuous morphological evolution in response to variations in water and sediment fluxes associated with a plethora of natural and anthropogenic disturbances, which has to date remained poorly understood. Here, a one-dimensional hydro-sediment-morphodynamic model is proposed for braided rivers. It is built upon an extended synthetic channel geometric model which encodes the essential, three-dimensional morphological information into a one-dimensional synthetic channel. It is first applied to the Rees River (New Zealand) to investigate overall morphological evolution (aggradation/degradation) during a single flood event. It is shown that the channel tends to degrade with increasing peak discharge and decreasing sediment supply, while the effect of baseflow discharge on aggradation/degradation is negligible unless the baseflow discharge exceeds a critical value. Then the proposed model is applied to resolve long-term morphological evolution in the Tuotuo River (China) reach (up to the year 2050), the source region of the Yangtze River, in response to projected water and sediment fluxes. Sustained degradation in the river reach is observed. The present study yields a viable physics-based method to predict overall aggradation or degradation of braided rivers under unsteady water and sediment fluxes over both short and long time scales.