Investimenti, consumi e occupazione. Capacità produttiva, domanda effettiva e distribuzione del reddito nel lungo periodo

In this essay, the theoretical background represented by the classical theory of income distribution and the Keynesian principle of effective demand extended to the long term is used as a guide to identify the problems that the change in productive capacity raises on the long-term relationship between investment, consumption and employment. This theoretical perspective moves away from the neo-kaleckian growth theory, according to which the equilibrium between savings and investment in the-long term is warranted by changes in the steady state degree of capacity utilization. The essay aims to draw attention to the view that the adjustment of productive capacity to expected demand implies a qualitative change in productive capacity, which is transformed by the producers to acquire the means of production, skills and organization necessary to produce new and existing goods and services in a new way. In particular, the essay focuses on the possible long-term effects arising from feedbacks of this transformation of the productive capacity on employment growth, consumption, production and income. In this theoretical perspective, the essay discusses the relationships between investments, effective demand and productive capacity, and the relationship between changes in productive capacity and labor productivity . In the last part of the essay, a system of relations between investment, consumption and employment is estimate for the United States and Italy for the period 1960-2013. The results suggest that in our contemporary economies decelerative forces are at work. These forces can essentially be attributed to the reduction in the use of labor per unit of production and to the effects of such a reduction on income and employment growth. The essay concludes with the formulation of some specific hypotheses for a broader empirical analysis, currently underway, of the relationship between investment, consumption and employment.