Application of SLEUTH Model to Predict Urbanization Along the Emilia-Romagna Coast (Italy): Considerations and Lessons Learned

Coastal zone of Emilia-Romagna region, Italy, has been significantly urbanized during the last decades, as a result of a tourism development. This was the main motivation to estimate future trajectories of urban growth in the area. Cellular automata (CA)-based SLEUTH model was applied for this purpose, by using quality geographical dataset combined with relevant information on environmental management policy. Three different scenarios of urban growth were employed: sprawled growth scenario, compact growth scenario and a scenario with business-as-usual pattern of development. The results showed the maximum increase in urbanization in the area would occur if urban areas continue to grow according to compact growth scenario, while minimum was observed in case of more sprawled-like type of growth. This research goes beyond the domain of the study site, providing future users of SLEUTH detailed discussion on considerations that need to be taken into account in its application