Risk for cardiovascular events in an Italian population of patients with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND AND AIM:This study aims to analyse the risk of cardiovascular events in a local cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes, and to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of four algorithms used to estimate cardiovascular risk: the Framingham study, United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS), Riskard study and Progetto Cuore.METHOD AND RESULTS:We analysed clinical charts of the Diabetes Clinics of Modena for the period 1991-95. Patients in the age range of 35-65 with type 2 diabetes and no previous cardiovascular disease were eligible. The incidence of new cardiovascular disease was compared with estimated rates deriving from the different functions. A stratification was obtained in subgroups at different cardiovascular risk, allowing comparison between the algorithms. A total of 1532 patients were eligible; women presented a worse cardiovascular risk profile. An absolute 10-year rate of cardiovascular events of 14.9% was observed. Comparing patients with events with event-free subjects, we found significant differences in systolic blood pressure, age at visit, smoking, high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, duration of diabetes, glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and co-morbidities. Comparing the estimated risk rate according to the different functions, Italian algorithms were more consistent with observed data; however, Progetto Cuore and Riskard show underestimation of events when applied to females.CONCLUSIONS:Estimation of cardiovascular risk is dependent on the algorithm adopted and on the baseline risk of the reference cohort. Functions designed for a specific population, including risk variables peculiar for diabetes, should be adopted to increase the performance of such functions which is clearly unsatisfactory at present.