Foreign Aid and responsiveness of bilateral refugee inflows

This paper tests the effects of Aid from 14 OECD donor economies on bilateral asylum seeker inflows from 113 developing countries during 1993-2013. Results are that Aid affects asylum seeker inflows nonlinearly in the pc income of the origin country, in a ‘U’ shaped fashion, with a turning point at 9,150 pcGDP, PPP2011$. Aid has also cross-donor negative spillovers and regional effects. Overall, deterring effects concern especially Sub Saharan countries. Moreover, Aid does not influence bilateral voluntary migration. Making Aid transfers conditional on improvements in political and economic institutions in recipient countries can strengthen their effects on asylum seeker inflows.