Spare Parts Replacement Policy Based on Chaotic Models

Poisson point processes are widely used to model the consumption of spare parts. However, when the items have very low consumption rates, the historical sample sizes are too small. This paper presents a modelling technique for spare parts policies in the case of items with a low consumption rate. We propose the use of chaotic models derived from the well-known chaotic processes logistic map and Hénon attractor to assess the behaviour of a set of five medium voltage motors supplying four drives in the rolling mill of a steelmaking plant. Supported by the chaotic models, we conclude that the company needs an additional motor to ensure full protection against shortages.