Labor market and demographic scenarios for ASEAN countries (2010-35) Education, skill development, manpower needs, migration flows and economic growth

ASEAN countries have been moving at different speeds along the path of the so called Demographic transition and are at present at different stages of this complex process. As a consequence, starting in the very near future, some ASEAN countries will be affected by an increasing structural lack of labor supply, while in other a structural excess of labor supply will persist for at least 30-40 years. This situation has already contributed to divide ASEAN countries into two groups: departure countries and arrival countries. Data show that both departures and arrivals have been steadily increasing as well as labor mobility within ASEAN. Building on this demographic background, the paper proposes alternative labor market and demographic scenarios for the period 2010-35. The scenarios outline manpower needs, migration flows and population growth on the basis of the trends in WAP and alternative hypothesis on employment growth. The main conclusion is that the higher the rate of economic growth that will be attained by Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and Brunei (already relevant arrival countries), the higher their need of foreign labor. In fact, in a very near future the local labor supply of these countries will not be even sufficient to replace the workers that will leave for good the labor force due to retirement or death. In substance, the paper supports the idea that growing workers mobility within ASEAN countries will represent an unavoidable precondition for economic growth and social development.