Analisi cluster delle caratteristiche socio-economiche dei comuni dell'Emilia-Romagna: un confronto tra comuni dentro e fuori dal cratere del sisma

The socio-economic features of the area hit by the 2012 earthquake in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) represents a first step in building a more comprehensive framework, which could help in better interpreting earthquake effects in both short and medium period. Actually, this analysis falls under that broader field of research, which is aimed at providing counterfactual evaluations of both natural disasters’ impacts and the adoption of public policies to support reconstruction. This paper moves from the idea that those municipalities, which lie close to the epicentre of 2012 Emilia-Romagna earthquake, are not particularly homogenous in terms of socio-economic features. Analysing those major differences is a key element in order to assess the way human activities and other specific economic features at municipality level may either increase or limit the effects of an earthquake. Firstly, this paper tackles the problem of properly identifying the boundaries of the area directly hit by the 2012 earthquake. Indeed, different acts have provided different definitions of those boundaries. Eventually, a cluster analysis has been performed covering all municipalities in Emilia-Romagna, according to a set of demographic and economic variables, available at municipality level. This analysis highlights the existence of different typologies of municipalities, even in the area hit by the earthquake. In particular, these results are of particular interest, allowing further assessments on the effects of the earthquake. Actually, according to cluster analysis results, specific counterfactual examples (not hit by the earthquake) will be identified.